A model to evaluate economic effects of fishery management measures : how would a change in total allowable catch for Monterey goundfish affect the local economy?
Thesis (M.S.) Division of Science and Environmental Policy
The research question addressed by this thesis is: if a modification to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act enabled an increase in Total Allowable Catch for a single species in the US West Coast groundfish fishery, what would be the direct and indirect economic effects on Monterey County, California? I used primary and secondary industry sources to build an Input/Output table reflecting the Monterey County economy, then calculated economic multipliers from this Input/Output table. I then calculated the likely increase in catch of relevant species (the species of focus and those that co-occur with it) and used recent ex-vessel prices to arrive at the likely economic effect. Various scenarios were explored: the base case was a simple aggregation of industry sector data from federal government sources; additional cases included a different aggregation of industry sectors, addition of industry transaction data from the Pacific Fisheries Information Network and addition of survey data from fishermen and processors. Counting only direct and indirect effects of an increase in commercial catch, a 10% increase in Total Allowable Catch of bocaccio rockfish could result in effects ranging from $250,000 to over $1,000,000 per annum for the fishing community in Monterey County. While this is a straightforward benefit, the costs of ecosystem effects would need to be quantified and evaluated for a thorough analysis of the merit of increasing bocaccio TAC.